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Diachronic Coherence and Radical Probabilism

Brian Skyrms
Philosophy of Science
Vol. 73, No. 5, Proceedings of the 2004 Biennial Meeting of The Philosophy of Science AssociationPart II: Symposia PapersEdited by Miriam Solomon (December 2006), pp. 959-968
DOI: 10.1086/518815
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/518815
Page Count: 10
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Diachronic Coherence and Radical Probabilism
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Abstract

The question of diachronic coherence, coherence of degrees of belief across time, is investigated within the context of Richard Jeffrey’s radical probabilism. Diachronic coherence is taken as fundamental, and coherence results for degrees of belief at a single time, such as additivity, are recovered only with additional assumptions. Additivity of probabilities of probabilities is seen to be less problematic than additivity of first‐order probabilities. Without any assumed model of belief change, diachronic coherence applied to higher‐order degrees of belief yields the martingale property.

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