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Fertilization under Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on Producer Yield Expectations

S. SriRamaratnam, David A. Bessler, M. Edward Rister, John E. Matocha and James Novak
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Vol. 69, No. 2 (May, 1987), pp. 349-357
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1242285
Page Count: 9
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Fertilization under Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on Producer Yield Expectations
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Abstract

Optimal nitrogen fertilizer levels are computed for a sample of Texas Coastal Bend grain sorghum producers based on their assessed subjective conditional yield and price probabilities, utility measures, and cost information. Producers' mean yield expectations were substantially greater than experimental yield response and their perceptions of the effects of nitrogen on yield variability were contrary to usual characterization of nitrogen as a risk-increasing input. Optimal fertilizer levels based on expected utility maximization represent actual fertilizer use somewhat better than those based on expected profit maximization. However, both calculated levels were high relative to actual fertilizer use.

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