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Les limites de la démographie potentielle

J. Bourgeois-Pichat
Revue de l'Institut International de Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute
Vol. 19, No. 1 (1951), pp. 13-27
DOI: 10.2307/1401499
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1401499
Page Count: 15
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Les limites de la démographie potentielle
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Abstract

Analyzing the notions defined by Mr. Hersch for the development of his "potential demography", the author first shows how Mr. Hersch' attempt fits in into the traditional framework of demography. On the basis of the fact that expectation of life is approximately a linear function of age, he derives simplified formulae for the determination of life potentials which make the calculations considerably shorter. These simplified formulae reveal the analogy of life potentials to certain other rates, marking in this way the limites of the use which can be made of them. Finally, the author examines the significance of the distinction made by Mr. Hersch between the annual rate of change of the life potential caused by mortality on the one hand, and by advancing age on the other. He shows that actually these are not annual rates, and concludes therefore that this chapter of "potential demography" is of questionable value.

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