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Some Cracks in the Empire of Chance (Flaws in the Foundations of Reliability)

Nozer D. Singpurwalla
International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique
Vol. 70, No. 1 (Apr., 2002), pp. 53-65
DOI: 10.2307/1403722
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1403722
Page Count: 13
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Some Cracks in the Empire of Chance (Flaws in the Foundations of Reliability)
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Abstract

Making quantified statements about the uncertainty associated with the lifelength of an item is one of the most fundamental tasks of reliability assessment. Most practitioners routinely do this using one of the several available statistical techniques. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first is to give the user an overview of the key tenets of two of the most commonly used parametric approaches. The second is to point out that these commonly used approaches involve strategies that are either ad hoc, or are in violation of some of the underlying tenets. A method that is devoid of logical flaws can be proposed, but this method is difficult to implement. The user must therefore resign to using that technique against which the fewest objections can be hurled. /// Une des activités les plus fondamentales du contrôle de la fiabilité d'un objet consiste à faire connaître de façon quantitative l'incertitude associée à sa durée de vie. La plupart des praticiens utilisent couramment pour ce faire une des techniques statistiques disponibles. L'objectif de cet article est double. Il vise d'abord à donner à l'utilisateur une vue d'ensemble des principes clés de deux des approches paramétriques les plus souvent utilisées. Il met ensuite l'accent sur le fait que ces approches habituelles impliquent des stratégies qui sont soit ad hoc, soit en violation de certains des principes sous-jacents. On peut proposer une méthode exempte de problèmes logiques, mais elle est difficile à mettre en oeuvre. L'utilisateur doit donc se résigner à recourir à la technique sur laquelle on peut émettre le moins d'objections.

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