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The Theory of Periodic Screening I: Lead Time and Proportion Detected
Philip C. Prorok
Advances in Applied Probability
Vol. 8, No. 1 (Mar., 1976), pp. 127-143
Published by: Applied Probability Trust
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1426025
Page Count: 17
You can always find the topics here!Topics: Disease models, Chronic diseases, Early detection, Screening tests, Term weighting, Cancer screening, Random variables, Weighted averages, Breast cancer, Epidemiology
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A stochastic model for a periodic screening program is presented in which the natural history of a chronic disease is assumed to follow a progressive path from a preclinical state to a clinical state. The sampling of preclinical state sojourn times by screening examinations generates bounds on the preclinical state recurrence times. The distribution of the bounded forward recurrence time is derived and used to obtain the distribution and mean of the lead time, and relationships for calculating the proportion of preclinical cases detected. These expressions are derived in terms of the preclinical state sojourn-time distribution and adjustible parameters important in the design of a periodic screening program.
Advances in Applied Probability © 1976 Applied Probability Trust