Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If You Use a Screen Reader

This content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.

The Theory of Periodic Screening I: Lead Time and Proportion Detected

Philip C. Prorok
Advances in Applied Probability
Vol. 8, No. 1 (Mar., 1976), pp. 127-143
DOI: 10.2307/1426025
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1426025
Page Count: 17
  • Read Online (Free)
  • Subscribe ($19.50)
  • Cite this Item
Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
The Theory of Periodic Screening I: Lead Time and Proportion Detected
Preview not available

Abstract

A stochastic model for a periodic screening program is presented in which the natural history of a chronic disease is assumed to follow a progressive path from a preclinical state to a clinical state. The sampling of preclinical state sojourn times by screening examinations generates bounds on the preclinical state recurrence times. The distribution of the bounded forward recurrence time is derived and used to obtain the distribution and mean of the lead time, and relationships for calculating the proportion of preclinical cases detected. These expressions are derived in terms of the preclinical state sojourn-time distribution and adjustible parameters important in the design of a periodic screening program.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
127
    127
  • Thumbnail: Page 
128
    128
  • Thumbnail: Page 
129
    129
  • Thumbnail: Page 
130
    130
  • Thumbnail: Page 
131
    131
  • Thumbnail: Page 
132
    132
  • Thumbnail: Page 
133
    133
  • Thumbnail: Page 
134
    134
  • Thumbnail: Page 
135
    135
  • Thumbnail: Page 
136
    136
  • Thumbnail: Page 
137
    137
  • Thumbnail: Page 
138
    138
  • Thumbnail: Page 
139
    139
  • Thumbnail: Page 
140
    140
  • Thumbnail: Page 
141
    141
  • Thumbnail: Page 
142
    142
  • Thumbnail: Page 
143
    143