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Mycoplasma meleagridis of Turkeys: Probability of Eliminating Egg-Borne Infection

Robert K. Edson, R. Yamamoto and T. B. Farver
Avian Diseases
Vol. 31, No. 2 (Apr. - Jun., 1987), pp. 264-271
DOI: 10.2307/1590871
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1590871
Page Count: 8
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Mycoplasma meleagridis of Turkeys: Probability of Eliminating Egg-Borne Infection
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Abstract

An equation was developed that describes the probability of eliminating egg-borne Mycoplasma meleagridis (MM) of turkeys by egg treatment. Probability (P) of MM elimination was described in terms of four parameters: 1) pretreatment prevalence of MM, α; 2) treatment failure rate, β; 3) number of eggs treated, n; and 4) hatching rate, h. The eradication equation, based on the Poisson probability distribution, was P(0)=e-nα β h. Probabilities derived from 12 hypothetical MM-eradication situations showed that increasing the size of any or all of the parameters decreased the likelihood of eradication. Use of the predictive equation as a planning tool in a successful MM-eradication program is demonstrated. /// Se desarrolló una ecuación que describe la probabilidad de eliminar la transmisión en pavos de Mycoplasma meleagridis a través del huevo mediante tratamiento del mismo. La probabilidad (P) de eliminación de M. meleagridis fué descrita en términos de 4 parámetros distintos: (1) Prevalencia de M. meleagridis previa al tratamiento, α; (2) tasa de falla del tratamiento, β; (3) número de huevos tratados, n y (4) tasa de nacimientos, h. La ecuación de erradicación basada en una probabilidad con distribución tipo Poisson fué P(0)=e-nα β h. La probabilidad obtenida a partir de 12 situaciones hipotéticas de erradicación mostró que un aumento en el tamaño de cualquiera de los parámetros disminuye las posibilidades de erradicación. Se demuestra el uso de una ecuación de predicción como instrumento de planeación en un programa efectivo de erradicación de M. meleagridis.

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