Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

Three-Year Incidence of AIDS in Five Cohorts of HTLV-III-Infected Risk Group Members

James J. Goedert, Robert J. Biggar, Stanley H. Weiss, M. Elaine Eyster, Mads Melbye, Susan Wilson, Harold M. Ginzburg, Ronald J. Grossman, Richard A. DiGioia, William C. Sanchez, José A. Giron, Peter Ebbesen, Robert C. Gallo and William A. Blattner
Science
New Series, Vol. 231, No. 4741 (Feb. 28, 1986), pp. 992-995
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1696964
Page Count: 4
  • More info
  • Cite this Item
Three-Year Incidence of AIDS in Five Cohorts of HTLV-III-Infected Risk Group Members
Preview not available

Abstract

The incidence of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) among persons infected with human T-lymphotropic virus type III (HTLV-III) was evaluated prospectively among 725 persons who were at high risk of AIDS and had enrolled before October 1982 in cohort studies of homosexual men, parenteral drug users, and hemophiliacs. A total of 276 (38.1 percent) of the subjects were either HTLV-III seropositive at enrollment or developed HTLV-III antibodies subsequently. AIDS had developed in 28 (10.1 percent) of the seropositive subjects before August 1985. By actuarial survival calculations, the 3-year incidence of AIDS among all HTLV-III seropositive subjects was 34.2 percent in the cohort of homosexual men in Manhattan, New York, and 14.9 percent (range 8.0 to 17.2 percent) in the four other cohorts. Out of 117 subjects followed for a mean of 31 months after documented seroconversion, five (all hemophiliacs) developed AIDS 28 to 62 months after the estimated date of seroconversion, supporting the hypothesis that there is a long latency between acquisition of viral infection and the development of clinical AIDS. This long latency could account for the significantly higher AIDS incidence in the New York cohort compared with other cohorts if the virus entered the New York homosexual population before it entered the populations from which the other cohorts were drawn. However, risk of AIDS development in different populations may also depend on the presence of as yet unidentified cofactors.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
992
    992
  • Thumbnail: Page 
993
    993
  • Thumbnail: Page 
994
    994
  • Thumbnail: Page 
995
    995