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Money and the Stock Market

Milton Friedman
Journal of Political Economy
Vol. 96, No. 2 (Apr., 1988), pp. 221-245
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1833107
Page Count: 25
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Money and the Stock Market
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Abstract

Quarterly data for the period from 1961 to 1986 suggest that the real quantity of money (defined as M2) demanded relative to income is positively related to the deflated price of equities (Standard and Poor's composite) three quarters earlier and negatively related to the contemporaneous real stock price. The positive relation appears to reflect a wealth effect; the negative, a substitution effect. The wealth effect appears stronger than the substitution effect. The volume of transactions has an appreciable effect on M1 velocity but not on M2 velocity. Annual data for a century suggest that the apparent dominance of the wealth effect is the exception, not the rule.

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