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The Nonlinear Accelerator and the Persistence of Business Cycles
R. M. Goodwin
Econometrica
Vol. 19, No. 1 (Jan., 1951), pp. 1-17
Published by: The Econometric Society
DOI: 10.2307/1907905
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1907905
Page Count: 17
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Topics: Economic fluctuations, Economic capital, Capital investments, Capital stocks, Economic depressions, Limit cycles, Economics, Oscillation, Capital income, Coefficients
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Abstract
By taking account of obvious and inescapable limitations on the functioning of the accelerator, we explain some of the chief characteristics of the cycle, notably its failure to die away, along with the fact that capital stock is usually either in excess or in short supply. By a succession of increasingly complex models, the nature and methods of analyzing nonlinear cycle models is developed. The roles of lags and of secular evolution are illustrated. In each case the system's equilibrium position is unstable, but there exists a stable limit cycle toward which all motions tend.
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Econometrica © 1951 The Econometric Society