If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support

A Dynamic Model of Presidential Nomination Campaigns

John H. Aldrich
The American Political Science Review
Vol. 74, No. 3 (Sep., 1980), pp. 651-669
DOI: 10.2307/1958148
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1958148
Page Count: 19
  • Download PDF
  • Cite this Item

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support
A Dynamic Model of Presidential Nomination Campaigns
Preview not available

Abstract

Recent campaigns have demonstrated the importance of dynamic elements in affecting the selection of presidential nominees. This paper develops a mathematical model to analyze these dynamics. The heart of the model is the assumed relationship between the ability to acquire resources and success in primaries and caucuses. The expenditure of resources leads to greater electoral success, while greater electoral success (in particular, exceeding expectations in a primary or caucus) leads to greater resource-gathering capabilities. A difference equation model of these relationships is proposed. I prove that any campaign of this form is necessarily, unstable, which implies that most candidates will be @'winnowed out@' necessarily, while only a very few, but at least one candidate, will necessarily @'have momentum.@' This result is true whether there are two or many contenders. However, I also argue that the larger the number of candidates, the stronger the dynamic forces, and thus the more rapid the @'winnowing out@' process.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
651
    651
  • Thumbnail: Page 
652
    652
  • Thumbnail: Page 
653
    653
  • Thumbnail: Page 
654
    654
  • Thumbnail: Page 
655
    655
  • Thumbnail: Page 
656
    656
  • Thumbnail: Page 
657
    657
  • Thumbnail: Page 
658
    658
  • Thumbnail: Page 
659
    659
  • Thumbnail: Page 
660
    660
  • Thumbnail: Page 
661
    661
  • Thumbnail: Page 
662
    662
  • Thumbnail: Page 
663
    663
  • Thumbnail: Page 
664
    664
  • Thumbnail: Page 
665
    665
  • Thumbnail: Page 
666
    666
  • Thumbnail: Page 
667
    667
  • Thumbnail: Page 
668
    668
  • Thumbnail: Page 
669
    669