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Demographic Forecasting and the Easterlin Hypothesis

Ronald Demos Lee
Population and Development Review
Vol. 2, No. 3/4 (Sep. - Dec., 1976), pp. 459-468
Published by: Population Council
DOI: 10.2307/1971622
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1971622
Page Count: 10
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Demographic Forecasting and the Easterlin Hypothesis
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Abstract

The forecasting method described here exploits a strong observed inverse association of age-specific fertility and population size and certain aspects of structure. The effects of age-group size on relative economic status and of relative economic status on fertility provide an explanation for this association. Models incorporating these relations yield forecasting models based on the Easterlin hypothesis all agree on one important qualitative prediction: current US fertility is in a temporary trough, and an upturn should come after five or ten years. On the size of the predicted upturn, the models unfortunately disagree sharply.

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