You are not currently logged in.
Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:
If You Use a Screen ReaderThis content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Demographic Forecasting and the Easterlin Hypothesis
Ronald Demos Lee
Population and Development Review
Vol. 2, No. 3/4 (Sep. - Dec., 1976), pp. 459-468
Published by: Population Council
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1971622
Page Count: 10
Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Preview not available
The forecasting method described here exploits a strong observed inverse association of age-specific fertility and population size and certain aspects of structure. The effects of age-group size on relative economic status and of relative economic status on fertility provide an explanation for this association. Models incorporating these relations yield forecasting models based on the Easterlin hypothesis all agree on one important qualitative prediction: current US fertility is in a temporary trough, and an upturn should come after five or ten years. On the size of the predicted upturn, the models unfortunately disagree sharply.
Population and Development Review © 1976 Population Council