You are not currently logged in.
Access JSTOR through your library or other institution:
If You Use a Screen ReaderThis content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
The Limits of Population Forecasting
Population and Development Review
Vol. 7, No. 4 (Dec., 1981), pp. 579-593
Published by: Population Council
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972799
Page Count: 15
You can always find the topics here!Topics: Point forecasts, Statistical forecasts, Forecasting techniques, Population estimates, Forecasting standards, Demography, Population control, Censuses, Probability forecasts, Population growth rate
Were these topics helpful?See somethings inaccurate? Let us know!
Select the topics that are inaccurate.
Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Preview not available
The user of forecasts needs to know how far published estimates of future population can be relied on. The most compact way of describing accuracy is by showing the average error of past forecasts. From over a thousand comparisons of forecast with realization--national, regional, and global and covering the past 30 years--the conclusion emerges that the odds are two to one that a forecast rate of increase @=0.4 percentage points will straddle the realized rate of increase over future periods. That means in practice useable forecasts for the next 5 to 20 years, virtually no information on the population 100 years hence.
Population and Development Review © 1981 Population Council