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Dynamic Modelling and Rational Expectations

S. G. Brian Henry
Annales d'Économie et de Statistique
No. 6/7, Modélisation des systèmes dynamiques (Apr. - Sep., 1987), pp. 183-206
Published by: GENES on behalf of ADRES
DOI: 10.2307/20075653
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20075653
Page Count: 24
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Dynamic Modelling and Rational Expectations
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Abstract

Aggregate Employment has changed drastically in the UK since 1979, and its volatility seems amenable to an analysis based on the REH. This paper reviews numerical methods for estimating optimal employment plans based on the joint presence of forward-looking expectations and costs in adjusting employment. It illustrates that there may be advantages to be gained from the explicit introduction of forward-looking expectations formation using a range of employment models which have each figured in the recent UK literature. /// L'emploi agrégé a considérablement changé depuis 1979 au Royaume Uni et sa variabilité semble justifier une analyse fondée sur l'hypothèse d'anticipation rationnelle. Cet article présente des méthodes numériques pour estimer les plans d'emploi optimaux fondés sur la présence simultanée d'anticipations "avant" et de coûts d'adjustement de l'emploi. Il montre qu'il peut y avoir des avantages à l'introduction explicite d'anticipations avant en utilisant divers modèles d'emploi apparus récemment dans la littérature du Royaume Uni.

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