If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support

The Probability of War in the n-Crises Problem: Modeling New Alternatives to Wright's Solution

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla and Raymond Dacey
Synthese
Vol. 76, No. 2, Formal Analysis in International Relations (Aug., 1988), pp. 285-305
Published by: Springer
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20116561
Page Count: 21
  • Download PDF
  • Cite this Item

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support
The Probability of War in the n-Crises Problem: Modeling New Alternatives to Wright's Solution
Preview not available

Abstract

In his "Study of War," Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of war P "during a period of n crises", and proposed the equation $P=1-(1-p)^{n}$, where p is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi-Revilla (1987), using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the "n-crises problem" as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli's St. Petersburg Paradox as an analogue, the other based on the logic of conditional probabilities. Analysis shows that, while Wright's solution is robust with regard to the general overall behavior of p and n, some significant qualitative and quantitative differences emerge from the alternative solutions. In particular, P converges to 1 only in a special case (Wright's) and not generally.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
[285]
    [285]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
286
    286
  • Thumbnail: Page 
287
    287
  • Thumbnail: Page 
288
    288
  • Thumbnail: Page 
289
    289
  • Thumbnail: Page 
290
    290
  • Thumbnail: Page 
291
    291
  • Thumbnail: Page 
292
    292
  • Thumbnail: Page 
293
    293
  • Thumbnail: Page 
294
    294
  • Thumbnail: Page 
295
    295
  • Thumbnail: Page 
296
    296
  • Thumbnail: Page 
297
    297
  • Thumbnail: Page 
298
    298
  • Thumbnail: Page 
299
    299
  • Thumbnail: Page 
300
    300
  • Thumbnail: Page 
301
    301
  • Thumbnail: Page 
302
    302
  • Thumbnail: Page 
303
    303
  • Thumbnail: Page 
304
    304
  • Thumbnail: Page 
305
    305