Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

Praeger Review: Changing climate and the Irish landscape

F.I. Woodward, T. Quaife and M.R. Lomas
Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy
Vol. 110B, No. 1 (June 2010), pp. 1-16
Published by: Royal Irish Academy
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20799765
Page Count: 16
  • Download PDF
  • Add to My Lists
  • Cite this Item
Praeger Review: Changing climate and the Irish landscape
We're having trouble loading this content. Download PDF instead.

Abstract

The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish vegetation. Warming has been observed over the last two decades, with impacts that are also strongly influenced by natural oscillations of the surrounding ocean, seen as fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Satellite observations show that vegetation greenness increases in warmer years, a feature mirrored by increases in net ecosystem production observed for a grassland and a plantation forest. An ensemble of general circulation model simulations of future climates indicate temperature rises over the twenty-first century ranging from 1°C to 7°C, depending on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Net primary production is simulated to increase under all scenarios, due to the positive impacts of rising temperature, a modest rise of precipitation and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. In an optimistic scenario of reducing future emissions, CO₂ concentration is simulated to flatten from about 2070, although temperatures continue to increase. Under this scenario Ireland could become a source of carbon, whereas under all other emission scenarios Ireland is a sink for carbon that may increase by up to three-fold over the twenty-first century. A likely and unavoidable impact of changing climate is the arrival of alien plant species, which may disrupt ecosystems and exert negative impacts on native biodiversity. Alien species arrive continually, with about 250 dated arrivals in the twentieth century. A simulation model indicates that this rate of alien arrival may increase by anything between two and ten times, dependent on the future climatic scenario, by 2050. Which alien species may become severely disruptive is, however, not known.

Notes and References

This item contains 39 references.

REFERENCES
  • Araújo, M.B., Nogués-Bravo, D., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M. and Whittaker, RJ. 2008 Exposure of European diversity to changes in human-induced pressures. Environmental Science and Policy 11, 38-45.
  • Asner, G.P., Hughes, R.F., Vitousek, P.M., Knapp, D.E., Kenndey-Bowdoin, T., Boardman, J., Martin, R.E., Eastwood, M. and Green, R.O. 2008 Invasive plants transform the three- dimensional structure of rain forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, 4519-23.
  • Bartholome, E. and Beiward, A. 2005 GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth observation data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26, 1959-77.
  • Black, K., Davis, P., Lynch, P.Jones, M., McGettigan, M. and Osborne, B. 2006 Long-term trends in solar irradiance in Ireland and their potential effects on gross primary productivity. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 141, 118-32.
  • Black, K., Bolger, T., Davis, P., Nieuwenhuis, M., Reidy, B., Saiz, G., Tobin, B. and Osborne, B. 2007 Inventory and eddy covariance- based estimates of annual carbon sequestration in a Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) forest ecosystem. European Journal of Forest Research 126, 167-78.
  • Black, K., Byrne, K.A., Mencuccini, M., Tobin, B., Nieuwenhuis, M., Reidy, B., Bolger, T., Saiz, G., Green,C., Farrell, E.T., Osborne, B. 2009 Carbon stock and stock changes across a Sitka spruce chronosequence on surface- water gley soils. Forestry 82, 255-72.
  • Byrne, C. and Jones, M.B. 2002 Effects of elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertiliser on biomass produc- tivity, community structure and species diversity of a semi-natural grassland in Ireland. Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 102, 141-50.
  • Cannaby, H. and Hüsrevoǧlu, Y.S. 2009 The influ- ence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66, 1480-9.
  • Cruickshank, M.N., Tomlinson, R.W., Devine, P.M. and Milne, R. 1998 Carbon in the vegeta- tion and soils of Northern Ireland. Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 98B, 9-21.
  • Cruickshank, M.M., Tomlinson, R.W. and Trew, S. 2000 Application of CORINE land-cover mapping to estimate carbon stored in the vegeta- tion of Ireland. Journal of Environmental Management 58, 269-87.
  • Dima, M. and Lohmann, G. 2007 A hemi- spheric mechanism for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Journal of Climate 20, 2706-19.
  • Donnelly, A., Jones, M.B. and Salamin, N. 2006 Changes in tree phenology: an indi- cator of spring warming in Ireland? Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 106B, 47-55.
  • García-Suárez, A.M. and Butler, C.J. 2006 Soil temperatures at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, from 1904 to 2002. International Journal of Climatology 26, 1075-89.
  • Gilmanov, T.G., Soussana, J.F., Aires, L., Allard, V., Ammann, C., Balzarolo, M., Barcza, Z., Bernhofer, C., Campbell, C.L., Cernusca, A., Cescatti, A., Clifton-Brown, J., Dirks, B.O.M., Dore, S., Eugster, W., Fuhrer, J., Gimeno, C., Gruenwald, T., Haszpra, L., Hensen, A., Ibrom, A., Jacobs, A.F.G., Jones, M.B., Lanigan, G., Laurila, T., Lohila, A., Manca, G, Marcoila, Nagy, Z., Pilegaard, Pinter,K., Pio, C., Rashci, A., Rogiers, N., Sanz, M.J., Stefani, P., Sutton, M., Tuba, Z., Valentini, R., Williamns, M.L. and Wohlfahrt, G. 2007 Partitioning European grassland net ecosystem CO2 exchange into gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration using light response function analysis. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 121, 93-120.
  • Gu, L.H., Fuentes, J.D., Shugart, H.H., Staebler, R.M. and Black, T.A. 1999 Responses of net ecosystem exchanges of carbon dioxide to changes in cloudiness: results from two North American deciduous forests. Journal of Geophysical Research— Atmospheres 104 (D24), 31421-34.
  • IPCC 2007a Summary for Policymakers. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds), Climate Change 2007: the physical sciences. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.
  • IPCC 2007b Summary for Policymakers. In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds), Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.
  • Ise, T., Dunn, A.L., Wofsy, S.C. and Moorcroft, P.R. 2008 High sensitivity of peat decom- position to climate change through water-table feedback. Nature Geoscience 1, 763-6.
  • Jones, H.G. 1992 Plants and microclimate a quantita- tive approach to environmental plant physiology, 2nd edn. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.
  • Jones, M.B., Donnelly, A. and Albanito, F. 2006 Responses of Irish vegetation to future climate change. Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 106B, 323-34.
  • LeBauer, D.S. and Treseder, K.K. 2008 Nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity in terres- trial ecosystems is globally distributed. Ecology 89, 371-9.
  • Los, S.O., Justice, C.O. and Tucker, C.J. 1994 A global 1 by 1 degree NDVI data set for climate studies derived from the GIMMS continental NDVI data, international Journal of Remote Sensing 15, 3493-518.
  • Mercado, L.M., Bellouin, N., Sitch, S., Boucher, O., Huntingford, C., Wild, M. and Cox, P.M. 2009 Impact of changes in diffuse radia- tion on the global land carbon sink. Nature 458, 1014-7.
  • Milbau, A. and Stout, J.C. 2008 Factors associated with alien plants transitioning from casual, to naturalized, to invasive. Conservation Biology 22, 308-17.
  • Pejchar, L. and Mooney, H.A. 2009 Invasive species, ecosystem services and human well- being. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24, 497-504.
  • Praeger, R.L. 1950 Natural history of Ireland: a sketch of its flora & fauna. London. Collins.
  • Quaife, T., Quegan, S., Disney, M., Lewis, P., Lomas, M. and Woodward, F.I. 2008 Impact of land cover uncertainties on estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22, GB4016. doi:10.1029/2007GB003097.
  • Rodwell, M.J., Rowell, D.P. and Folland, C. K. 1999 Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and the European Climate. Nature 398, 320-3.
  • Rosenzweig, M.L. 1995 Species Diversity in Space and Time. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.
  • Schlesinger, M.E. and Ramankutty, N. 1994 An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years. Nature 367, 723-6.
  • Sellers, P.J., Los, S.O., Tucker, C.J., Justice, C.O., Dazlich, D.A., Collatz, G.J. and Randall, D. A. 1994 A global lxl degree NDVI data set for climate studies. Part 2: The generation of global fields of terrestrial biophysical parameters from the NDVI. International Journal of Remote Sensing 15, 3519-45.
  • Siemens, J. 2003 The European carbon budget: a gap. Science 302, 1681.
  • Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N., Levy, P.E., Lomas, M., Piao, S.L., Betts, R., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C.D., Prentice, I.C. and Woodward, F.I. 2008 Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using 5 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14, 2015-39.
  • Sottocornola, M. and Kiely, G 2005 An Atlantic blanket bog is a modest CO2 sink. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L23804.
  • Sweeney, J. and Fealy, R. 2002 A preliminary investigation of future climate scenarios for Ireland. Biology and Environment: Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 102B, 121-8.
  • Tomlinson, R.W. 2005 Soil carbon stocks and changes in the Republic of Ireland. Journal of Environmental Management 76, 77-93.
  • Westphal, M.I., Browne, M., MacKinnon, K. and Noble, I. 2008 The link between international trade and the global distribution of invasive plant species. Biological Invasions 10, 391-8.
  • Woodward, F.I. and Kelly, C.K. 2008 Responses of global plant diversity capacity to changes in carbon dioxide concentration and climate. Ecology Letters 11, 1229-37.
  • Woodward, F.I. and Lomas, M.R. 2004 Vegetation dynamics—simulating responses to climatic change. Biological Reviews 79, 643-70.