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Theories of Protest and the Revolutions of 1989
Ronald A. Francisco
American Journal of Political Science
Vol. 37, No. 3 (Aug., 1993), pp. 663-680
Published by: Midwest Political Science Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2111569
Page Count: 18
You can always find the topics here!Topics: Political protests, Political revolutions, Forecasting models, Coercion, Statistical models, Time series forecasting, Rational choice theory, Social protests, Refugees, Parametric models
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This study investigates the revolutions in the German Democratic Republic and Czechoslovakia in the context of comparative theories of protest and revolution. After a review of recent methodological advances and the two revolutions, the Gurr-Lichbach mobilization of discontent model is adapted to the two cases and tested with longitudinal data. Rational action theories are integrated into a final model that can be used to analyze protest in authoritarian systems. The model performs better for the two revolutions than any predecessor. In ex post and ex ante forecasting tests, the model generated large prediction error; however, it forecasted historically unprecedented levels of sustained protest.
American Journal of Political Science © 1993 Midwest Political Science Association