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International Trade, Political Conflict/Cooperation, and Granger Causality

Rafael Reuveny and Heejoon Kang
American Journal of Political Science
Vol. 40, No. 3 (Aug., 1996), pp. 943-970
DOI: 10.2307/2111801
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2111801
Page Count: 28
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
International Trade, Political Conflict/Cooperation, and Granger Causality
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Abstract

Causality between international trade and bilateral conflict/cooperation, to be investigated, is dyad dependent. Either international trade causes bilateral conflict/cooperation or bilateral conflict/cooperation causes international trade. Granger causality is formally tested between quarterly trade data and quarterly series for conflict/cooperation. A long conflict/cooperation series is constructed from 1960 to the early 1990s by splicing COPDAB and WEIS, two events data sets that are most widely used. A total of 16 dyads are investigated individually by assuming that the direction and the strength of causality may differ from one dyad to another. Granger causality between bilateral conflict/cooperation and international trade, which is dyad dependent, tends to be reciprocal.

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