Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support

Are all Economic Hypotheses False?

J. Bradford De Long and Kevin Lang
Journal of Political Economy
Vol. 100, No. 6, Centennial Issue (Dec., 1992), pp. 1257-1272
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138833
Page Count: 16
  • Read Online (Free)
  • Download ($14.00)
  • Subscribe ($19.50)
  • Cite this Item
If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support
Are all Economic Hypotheses False?
Preview not available

Abstract

We develop an estimator that allows us to calculate an upper bound to the fraction of unrejected null hypotheses tested in economics journal articles that are in fact true. Our point estimate is that none of the unrejected nulls in our sample is true. We reject the hypothesis that more than one-third are true. We consider three explanations for this finding: that all null hypotheses are mere approximations, that data-mining biases reported standard errors downward, and that journals tend to publish papers that fail to reject their null hypotheses only when the null hypotheses are likely to be false. While all these explanations are important, the last seems best able to explain our findings.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
1257
    1257
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1258
    1258
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1259
    1259
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1260
    1260
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1261
    1261
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1262
    1262
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1263
    1263
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1264
    1264
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1265
    1265
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1266
    1266
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1267
    1267
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1268
    1268
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1269
    1269
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1270
    1270
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1271
    1271
  • Thumbnail: Page 
1272
    1272