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Estimation of Stochastic Variation in Vital Rates: A Simulation Approach

C. M. Suchindran, Alice S. Clague and Jeanne Clare Ridley
Population Studies
Vol. 33, No. 3 (Nov., 1979), pp. 549-564
DOI: 10.2307/2173898
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2173898
Page Count: 16
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Estimation of Stochastic Variation in Vital Rates: A Simulation Approach
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Abstract

The computer simulation model, REPSIM-B is used to study the random errors in selected cohort natality measures. A brief overview of various analytic approaches for studying such random errors is first presented. Results from analytic models are then compared with those obtained from the computer simulation model. The natality measures studied are age-specific rates, total fertility, births per person-years lived and cumulative birth rates. Also considered are selected indices of birth intervals, mean age at childbearing and the infant mortality rate. In most instances, the use of conventional binomial type models underestimated the random variation of the fertility indices. Among the conventional fertility measures, total fertility, births per person-year lived, and the cumulative birth rates at older ages were found to be the least variable. While life-table means and medians were observed to be less variable than observed mean birth intervals, the life-table medians of birth intervals were the least variable.

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