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Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations

Leonard J. Savage
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Vol. 66, No. 336 (Dec., 1971), pp. 783-801
DOI: 10.2307/2284229
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2284229
Page Count: 19
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Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations
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Abstract

Proper scoring rules, i.e., devices of a certain class for eliciting a person's probabilities and other expectations, are studied, mainly theoretically but with some speculations about application. The relation of proper scoring rules to other economic devices and to the foundations of the personalistic theory of probability is brought out. The implications of various restrictions, especially symmetry restrictions, on scoring rules is explored, usually with a minimum of regularity hypothesis.

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