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Aggregate Versus Subaggregate Models in Local Area Forecasting

D. M. Dunn, W. H. Williams and T. L. DeChaine
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Vol. 71, No. 353 (Mar., 1976), pp. 68-71
DOI: 10.2307/2285732
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2285732
Page Count: 4
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Aggregate Versus Subaggregate Models in Local Area Forecasting
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Abstract

Should statistical forecasts be constructed by aggregating data to each level for which forecasts are required or aggregating the forecasts from the lower levels? The relevant literature suggests no general answer. In this study using actual data, forecasts aggregated from lower-level modeling were found best.

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