Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support

Updating Subjective Probability

Persi Diaconis and Sandy L. Zabell
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Vol. 77, No. 380 (Dec., 1982), pp. 822-830
DOI: 10.2307/2287313
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2287313
Page Count: 9
  • Download ($14.00)
  • Cite this Item
If you need an accessible version of this item please contact JSTOR User Support
Updating Subjective Probability
Preview not available

Abstract

Jeffrey's rule for revising a probability P to a new probability P* based on new probabilities P*(Ei) on a partition {Ei}i = 1n is P*(A) = ∑ P(A ∣ Ei) P*(Ei). Jeffrey's rule is applicable if it is judged that P*(A ∣ Ei) = P(A ∣ Ei) for all A and i. This article discusses some of the mathematical properties of this rule, connecting it with sufficient partitions, and maximum entropy updating of contingency tables. The main results concern simultaneous revision on two partitions.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
822
    822
  • Thumbnail: Page 
823
    823
  • Thumbnail: Page 
824
    824
  • Thumbnail: Page 
825
    825
  • Thumbnail: Page 
826
    826
  • Thumbnail: Page 
827
    827
  • Thumbnail: Page 
828
    828
  • Thumbnail: Page 
829
    829
  • Thumbnail: Page 
830
    830