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Does the Stock Market Overreact?

Werner F. M. De Bondt and Richard Thaler
The Journal of Finance
Vol. 40, No. 3, Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-Third Annual Meeting American Finance Association, Dallas, Texas, December 28-30, 1984 (Jul., 1985), pp. 793-805
Published by: Wiley for the American Finance Association
DOI: 10.2307/2327804
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2327804
Page Count: 13
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Does the Stock Market Overreact?
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Abstract

Research in experimental psychology suggests that, in violation of Bayes' rule, most people tend to "overreact" to unexpected and dramatic news events. This study of market efficiency investigates whether such behavior affects stock prices. The empirical evidence, based on CRSP monthly return data, is consistent with the overreaction hypothesis. Substantial weak form market inefficiencies are discovered. The results also shed new light on the January returns earned by prior "winners" and "losers." Portfolios of losers experience exceptionally large January returns as late as five years after portfolio formation.

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