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The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges

Robert F. Baur and Peter F. Orazem
The Journal of Finance
Vol. 49, No. 2 (Jun., 1994), pp. 681-695
Published by: Wiley for the American Finance Association
DOI: 10.2307/2329168
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2329168
Page Count: 15
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The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges
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Abstract

This article examines the effect of public information on the orange juice market. We investigate the rationality, information content, and price effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts of the production of oranges. U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts are found to be unbiased and efficient. The first forecast contains the most new information, and subsequent reports become valuable only when freezes occur. Significant price movements occur in response to announced production in both Florida and California. However, the majority of price variations cannot be explained by these movements in supply.

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