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Predicting Tender Offer Success: A Logistic Analysis

Ralph A. Walkling
The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Vol. 20, No. 4 (Dec., 1985), pp. 461-478
DOI: 10.2307/2330762
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2330762
Page Count: 18
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Predicting Tender Offer Success: A Logistic Analysis
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Abstract

This research develops and tests a model for the prediction of tender offer outcomes. Variables that increase the supply of "obtainable shares" (such as increased bid premiums or the payment of solicitation fees) are shown to increase the probability of success. Increased ownership of target firm shares by the bidder also increases the probability of success. Variables that impede the tendering of shares (such as target management opposition or a competing bid) decrease the probability of success. Tests of the model utilizing both linear and logistic analysis support the theoretical constructs and help resolve the paradoxical findings of previous research.

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