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Akaike's procedure (1970) for selecting a model minimises an estimate of the expected squared error in predicting new, independent observations. This selection criterion was designed for models fitted by least squares. A different model-fitting technique, such as least absolute deviation regression, requires an appropriate model selection procedure. This paper presents a general Akaike-type criterion applicable to a wide variety of loss functions for model fitting. It requires only that the function be convex with a unique minimum, and twice differentiable in expectation. Simulations show that the estimators proposed here well approximate their respective prediction errors.
Biometrika © 1995 Biometrika Trust