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The Critical Community Size for Measles in the United States

M. S. Bartlett
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General)
Vol. 123, No. 1 (1960), pp. 37-44
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
DOI: 10.2307/2343186
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2343186
Page Count: 8
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The Critical Community Size for Measles in the United States
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Abstract

The critical community size for measles (the size for which measles is as likely as not to fade out after a major epidemic until reintroduced from outside, corresponding to a mean time to fade-out of about two years) is found for the United States to be about 250,000 to 300,000 in terms of total population, or about 30 in terms of average weekly notifications. These figures agree broadly with English statistics, provided notifications are corrected as far as possible for unreported cases. Comparison is also made with results calculated from theoretical models. The contrasting epidemiological patterns for measles and chickenpox are noted.

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