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Perspectives in Population Prediction: Illustrated by the Statistics of England and Wales

W. Brass
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General)
Vol. 137, No. 4 (1974), pp. 532-583
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
DOI: 10.2307/2344713
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2344713
Page Count: 52
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Perspectives in Population Prediction: Illustrated by the Statistics of England and Wales
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Abstract

The development of techniques of population prediction is outlined and the basic principles discussed. The need for the recognition of the sub-classifications within which the trends of population components are consistent and interpretable is emphasised and also the importance of substantive as opposed to formal investigation of demographic movements. Accounts are given of recent research, relevant to prediction, in the mathematical description of mortality, nuptiality and fertility by age and duration variables. A systematic scheme for applying time relational models in this way is developed. The place of cohort methods is examined and it is concluded that their standard use for extrapolation of the level of fertility into the future is not justified in conditions similar to those in England and Wales. A procedure of cyclic projection of time period measures is proposed as an alternative.

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