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Dealing With Conflicting Forecasts: The Eclectic Advantage
Robert T. Falconer and Charles M. Sivesind
Vol. 12, No. 4 (September 1977), pp. 5-11
Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23481228
Page Count: 7
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Most business forecasters receive and read more than one forecasting service, but the many forecasts received are seldom combined in a systematic way to produce a composite forecast. And, it might appear such a technique might do nothing more than to compound errors. Not so, say the authors of this paper. They show that a forecast built from two other forecasts can be more accurate than either of the two underlying forecasts. Accuracy in forecasting, however, is not simply a matter of "the more forecasts in the pot, the better the prediction," and the authors tell what to look for in creating a combination of forecasts.
Business Economics © 1977 Palgrave Macmillan Journals