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Long-Lead vs. Medium-Lead Cycle Indicators as Business and Stock Market Forecasters

Leo Barnes
Business Economics
Vol. 12, No. 2 (March 1977), pp. 1-11
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23481347
Page Count: 11
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Long-Lead vs. Medium-Lead Cycle Indicators as Business and Stock Market Forecasters
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Abstract

Leading indicators are widely used tools in business forecasting. Some indicators foreshadow changes in business conditions with a long lead, on average, while other indicators have shorter average leads. This article looks at existing tools in a new way, and concludes that both our total knowledge of business conditions and our forecasting abilities are modestly but usefully increased by maximum use of long-lead indicators in combination with medium-lead indicators.

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