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Using Dealer Financing Costs to Forecast Turning Points in the Treasury Bill Market

Donald L. Koch, Joseph T. Doyle and Joseph A. Whitt Jr.
Business Economics
Vol. 19, No. 1 (January 1984), pp. 30-39
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23483824
Page Count: 10
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Using Dealer Financing Costs to Forecast Turning Points in the Treasury Bill Market
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Abstract

This paper develops an indicator of market conditions which signals when a turning point in interest rates on Treasury bills is likely. The indicator is based on an analysis of the behavior of government securities dealers, firms which make markets on a wide range of Treasury securities. These dealers maintain inventories of Treasury securities; changes in the size of these inventories and in the cost of their financing provide clues about future movements of interest rates on Treasury bills.

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