Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

Interpreting Movements in the Composite Index of Leading Indicators: USE THEM WITH CAUTION

H.O. Stekler
Business Economics
Vol. 38, No. 3 (July 2003), pp. 58-61
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23490268
Page Count: 4
  • More info
  • Cite this Item
Preview not available
Preview not available

Abstract

Evaluations of the forecasting performance of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI) at cyclical turning points have generally been made well after the event, using historical data. This note questions whether all historical versions of the index yield similar results and whether the performance of the index in real-time, using then-available data, is similar to that of the historical versions. The results suggest that the CLI may be a somewhat less valuable real-time forecasting tool than had generally been believed.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
58
    58
  • Thumbnail: Page 
59
    59
  • Thumbnail: Page 
60
    60
  • Thumbnail: Page 
61
    61