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An Analysis of the Time-Varying Effects of Advertising: The Case of Lydia Pinkham

Russell S. Winer
The Journal of Business
Vol. 52, No. 4 (Oct., 1979), pp. 563-576
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2352446
Page Count: 14
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An Analysis of the Time-Varying Effects of Advertising: The Case of Lydia Pinkham
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Abstract

Most previous sales-advertising analyses implicitly assume that the postulated relationship has remained stable over the length of the time series. This assumption may be suspect, however, particularly for a long data series as consumer tastes, legislation, competitive activity, and intrafirm changes in strategy could affect the demand function. That this may be true is demonstrated with the frequently analyzed Lydia Pinkham's vegetable compound data using a simple covariance analysis and varying parameter regression. The results indicate that the effectiveness of current advertising dollars increased over time but carry-over effects declined. Also, provided with the ability to determine current values of its parameters, the researcher's forecasting capabilities improve.

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