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Assessing Pesticide Effects on Non-Target Invertebrates Using Long-Term Monitoring and Time-Series Modelling

N. J. Aebischer
Functional Ecology
Vol. 4, No. 3, New Horizons in Ecotoxicology (1990), pp. 369-373
DOI: 10.2307/2389598
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2389598
Page Count: 5
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Assessing Pesticide Effects on Non-Target Invertebrates Using Long-Term Monitoring and Time-Series Modelling
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Abstract

One way of assessing ecotoxicological effects of pesticides at the farm level is by longterm environmental monitoring coupled with time-series modelling. This is illustrated with 20 years of data on the density of sawflies (Symphyta: Hymenoptera) in cereals on a 62-km2 area of West Sussex. The summer use of aphicides in the area first became important in 1989, when 7 km2 were treated with dimethoate. Based on pre-1989 data, annual sawfly densities were found to be related, with a 1-year lag, to the proportion of cereal fields which were undersown and to summer rainfall and temperature, with a strong autoregressive component. In 1989, sawfly density in the area treated with dimethoate was less than one-tenth of that predicted by the model.

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