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Toward a Stochastic Model of Managerial Careers

Victor H. Vroom and Kenneth R. MacCrimmon
Administrative Science Quarterly
Vol. 13, No. 1 (Jun., 1968), pp. 26-46
DOI: 10.2307/2391260
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2391260
Page Count: 21
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Toward a Stochastic Model of Managerial Careers
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Abstract

This study describes how the career movements of managers and professionals within organizations may be described by a Markov chain model. This allows a formal description of the results of current career policies which can be examined for inconsistencies. Further, it allows predictions to be made of the effects of continuing present policies into the future. Thus, it provides a more rational basis for career policies of organizations and also for individual managers planning their own careers. From a sample of career movements of managers and professionals in a large industrial organization, data are presented, a simple model constructed, and inferences made. In addition to the normative uses of such models, it is important to note that they provide a means for examining in a dynamic way some basic behavioral science issues that have heretofore been approached in a static fashion.

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