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Is the Kalahari Cornucopia Fact or Fiction? A Predictive Model

C. A. Spinage and J. M. Matlhare
Journal of Applied Ecology
Vol. 29, No. 3 (1992), pp. 605-610
DOI: 10.2307/2404468
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2404468
Page Count: 6
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Is the Kalahari Cornucopia Fact or Fiction? A Predictive Model
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Abstract

1. Simulation of the population dynamics of large herbivores in Botswana's Kalahari desert region using aerial survey population estimates of 1979 and 1986, and assumed drought mortality differences between the two, showed that under an average 20-year drought cycle to which the region is believed to be prone, the survival of species such as eland may not be possible without recruitment from less drought-prone areas. 2. Harvesting increases the possibility of extinction. The large increases of herbivores which take place in good rainfall years may be a necessary strategy to ensure viable post-drought populations.

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