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Predictive Modelling in Biological Control: The Mango Mealy Bug (Rastrococcus invadens) and Its Parasitoids

H. C. J. Godfray and J. K. Waage
Journal of Applied Ecology
Vol. 28, No. 2 (Aug., 1991), pp. 434-453
DOI: 10.2307/2404560
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2404560
Page Count: 20
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Predictive Modelling in Biological Control: The Mango Mealy Bug (Rastrococcus invadens) and Its Parasitoids
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Abstract

(1) A mealy bug (Rastrococcus invadens) has recently become an important pest of mango and citrus in West Africa. Two parasitoids collected in India have been considered as biological control agents. (2) We develop age-structured host/parasitoid population models with overlapping generations to investigate the interactions of the host and its two potential parasitoids. (3) The models predict that one parasitoid (Gyranusoidea tebygi) will lead to a greater decrease in host density than the other parasitoid (Anagyrus sp.). We test the robustness of this prediction by sensitivity analysis. (4) The models predict that the addition of Anagyrus sp. to a system already containing G.tebygi will lead to little improvement in host depression. (5) We argue that models of intermediate complexity may offer the best prospects of predictive biological control in situations where it is not practicable to obtain the information needed to build and parameterise a large, tactical simulation model.

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