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A Stochastic Model of Insect Phenology for a Population with Spatially Variable Development Rates

Jery R. Stedinger, Christine A. Shoemaker and Robert F. Tenga
Biometrics
Vol. 41, No. 3 (Sep., 1985), pp. 691-701
DOI: 10.2307/2531289
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2531289
Page Count: 11
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A Stochastic Model of Insect Phenology for a Population with Spatially Variable Development Rates
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Abstract

State agencies conduct annual surveys to evaluate insect development as a component of integrated pest management programs. Precise timing of insecticide applications can be a key ingredient of such programs. A model is developed to predict insect development as a function of temperature history and other environmental variables. The model serves as the basis of a Dirichlet-multinomial distribution describing the number of larvae in a sample that are likely to have reached discrete observable life stages. The analysis incorporates the spatial variation in larval development from sampling point to sampling point within a site, which is superimposed upon the multinomial distribution of the observed development of larvae in each sample. For the spruce budworm population considered, it was found that for samples of twenty or more larvae the variation in larval development from point to point within a site, and not the number of larvae collected, controlled the information pertaining to regional larval development provided by such samples.

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