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New Models for New Labour: The Political Economy of Labour Party Support, January 1992-April 1997
Harold D. Clarke, Marianne C. Stewart and Paul F. Whiteley
The American Political Science Review
Vol. 92, No. 3 (Sep., 1998), pp. 559-575
Published by: American Political Science Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2585481
Page Count: 17
You can always find the topics here!Topics: Voting, Prime ministers, Economic models, Party identification, Labor parties, Economic expectations, Political parties, Modeling, Statistical models
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This article uses newly available British time-series data to analyze dynamic interrelationships among Labour vote intentions, perceptions that the Labour leader would make the best prime minister, and Labour party identification. Error-correction models reveal that best prime minister perceptions and party identification have important short- and long-run influences on vote intentions. Tests of rival models indicate that personal economic expectations outperform other economic evaluations in the vote intention and party identification analyses. National retrospective judgments perform well in analyses of best prime minister perceptions, and emotional reactions to economic conditions significantly influence these perceptions as well as party identification.
The American Political Science Review © 1998 American Political Science Association