You are not currently logged in.
Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:
If You Use a Screen ReaderThis content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates
The Review of Economics and Statistics
Vol. 80, No. 1 (Feb., 1998), pp. 164-168
Published by: The MIT Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2646739
Page Count: 5
Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
Preview not available
Asymmetric behavior has been documented in postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rates. This suggests that improvement over conventional linear forecasts may be possible through the use of nonlinear time-series models. In this note an out-of-sample forecasting competition is carried out for a set of leading nonlinear time-series models. It is shown that several nonlinear forecasts do indeed dominate the linear forecast. The results are sensitive, however, to whether a stationarity-inducing transformation is applied to the nonstationary unemployment rate series.
The Review of Economics and Statistics © 1998 The MIT Press