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Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote
Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice
The Public Opinion Quarterly
Vol. 46, No. 4 (Winter, 1982), pp. 534-537
Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2748773
Page Count: 4
You can always find the topics here!Topics: Presidential elections, Voting, Polls, Modeling, Reelection, Incumbents, Predictive modeling, Public opinion
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The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of his vote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity is assessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote model predicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll, and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection.
The Public Opinion Quarterly © 1982 American Association for Public Opinion Research