Access

You are not currently logged in.

Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution:

login

Log in to your personal account or through your institution.

Synchronic Bayesian Updating and the Sleeping Beauty Problem: Reply to Pust

Terry Horgan
Synthese
Vol. 160, No. 2 (Jan., 2008), pp. 155-159
Published by: Springer
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27653654
Page Count: 5
  • Download ($43.95)
  • Cite this Item
Synchronic Bayesian Updating and the Sleeping Beauty Problem: Reply to Pust
Preview not available

Abstract

I maintain, in defending "thirdism," that Sleeping Beauty should do Bayesian updating after assigning the "preliminary probability" 1/4 to the statement S: "Today is Tuesday and the coin flip is heads." (This preliminary probability obtains relative to a specific proper subset I of her available information.) Pust objects that her preliminary probability for S is really zero, because she could not be in an epistemic situation in which S is true. I reply that the impossibility of being in such an epistemic situation is irrelevant, because relative to I, statement S nonetheless has degree of evidential support 1/4.

Page Thumbnails

  • Thumbnail: Page 
[155]
    [155]
  • Thumbnail: Page 
156
    156
  • Thumbnail: Page 
157
    157
  • Thumbnail: Page 
158
    158
  • Thumbnail: Page 
159
    159