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Strong Association Between West African Rainfall and U.S. Landfall of Intense Hurricanes
William M. Gray
New Series, Vol. 249, No. 4974 (Sep. 14, 1990), pp. 1251-1256
Published by: American Association for the Advancement of Science
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2877855
Page Count: 6
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Intense hurricanes occurred much more frequently during the period spanning the late 1940s through the late 1960s than during the 1970s and 1980s, except for 1988 and 1989. Seasonal and multidecadal variations of intense hurricane activity are closely linked to seasonal and multidecadal variations of summer rainfall amounts in the Western Sahel region of West Africa. The multidecadal nature of West African precipitation variations and their association with variations of intense Atlantic hurricane activity can be observed in data going back nearly a century. The apparent recent breaking of the 18-year Sahel drought during 1988 and 1989 suggests that the incidence of intense hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast and in the Caribbean basin will likely increase during the 1990s and early years of the 21st century to levels of activity notably greater than were observed during the 1970s and 1980s.
Science © 1990 American Association for the Advancement of Science