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The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression- Intervention Analysis
Walter Enders and Todd Sandler
The American Political Science Review
Vol. 87, No. 4 (Dec., 1993), pp. 829-844
Published by: American Political Science Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2938817
Page Count: 17
You can always find the topics here!Topics: Terrorists, Terrorism, Hostages, Time series forecasting, Statistical variance, Assassinations, Embassies, Statistical models, Forecasting models, Time series
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Using quarterly data from 1968 to 1988, we analyze the time series properties of the various attack modes used by transnational terrorists. Combining vector autoregression and intervention analysis, we find strong evidence of both substitutes and complements among the attack modes. We also evaluate the effectiveness of six policies designed to thwart terrorism. The existence of complements and substitutes means that policies designed to reduce one type of attack may affect other attack modes. For example, the installation of metal detectors in airports reduced skyjackings and diplomatic incidents but increased other kinds of hostage attacks (barricade missions but increased assassinations. The Reagan "get tough" policy, which resulted in the enactment of two laws in 1984 and a retaliatory raid on Libya in 1986, did not have any noticeable long-term effect on curbing terrorist attacks directed against U.S. interests.
The American Political Science Review © 1993 American Political Science Association