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Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation

Robert J. Hodrick and Edward C. Prescott
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Vol. 29, No. 1 (Feb., 1997), pp. 1-16
DOI: 10.2307/2953682
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2953682
Page Count: 16
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Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
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Abstract

We propose a procedure for representing a time series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component. We document the nature of the comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series. We find that these comovements are very different than the corresponding comovements of the slowly varying trend components.

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