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A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE FERTILITY OF MIGRANTS: A MODEL APPROACH

B.N. BHATTACHARYA, K.N.S. YADAVA, S.R.J. SINGH and G.S. YADAVA
Genus
Vol. 53, No. 1/2 (GENNAIO - GIUGNO 1997), pp. 129-143
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/29788498
Page Count: 15
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Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader.
A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON THE FERTILITY OF MIGRANTS: A MODEL APPROACH
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Abstract

I modelli di fecondità sviluppati in letteratura si adattano bene al caso in cui entrambi i coniugi vivono insieme durante l'intero periodo riproduttivo. Nell'articolo viene proposta una distribuzione probabilistica per l'analisi dell'effetto dell'assenza del coniuge sulla fecondità. La distribuzione viene testata sulla base di dati provenienti da un'inchiesta condotta in un'area rurale dell'India (3514 famiglie in 19 villaggi dell'Uttar Pradesh), area caratterizzata da un notevole esodo rurale di tipo stagionale. Tra le coppie in cui almeno un coniuge è assente per alcuni periodi si osserva un alto tasso di concepimenti nel momento in cui ci si riunisce dopo una lunga separazione. Fertility models to be found in the literature are well suited for couples remaining united through the entire reproductive period. The present article proposes a probability distribution to study the impact on fertility caused by couple separation due to migration. Such distribution is being tested using data from a field work in a rural area (3514 families in 19 villages of Uttar Pradesh) known for its important seasonal migrations. A high conception rate is observed among migrant couples when they meet again after a long separation. Les modèles de fécondité qu'offre la littérature spécialisée conviennent bien au cas des couples qui cohabitent sans séparation pendant toute la période de reproduction. Nous proposons ici un modèle de distribution stochastique permettant de rendre compte de l'impact exercé sur la fécondité par les absences du conjoint. Cette distribution est confrontée aux données d'une enquête de terrain auprès de 3514 familles dans 19 villages de l'Uttar Pradesh (Inde), choisis dans une région rurale soumise à d'intenses migrations saisonnières. Chez les couples dont un des conjoints s'absente à plusieurs reprises, on observe un taux des conception élevé lors de leurs retrouvailles après une longue séparation.

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