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An unprecedented increase in the number of centenarians

JEAN-MARIE ROBINE and GRAZIELLA CASELLI
Genus
Vol. 61, No. 1, INCREASING LONGEVITY: CAUSES, TRENDS AND PROSPECTS (January - March 2005), pp. 57-82
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/29788836
Page Count: 26
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An unprecedented increase in the number of centenarians
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Abstract

La raccolta e l'analisi di una lunga serie di dati sui centenari di molti paesi a bassa mortalità hanno consentito di osservare tre aspetti del fenomeno fino ad ora sconosciuti. Primo, le lunghe serie di dati censuari, o di dati annuali stimati partendo dai censimenti, hanno evidenziato ovunque un importante aumento nel numero dei centenari, particolarmente fra le donne, anche se esiste tra i paesi un'evoluzione differenziale del loro raddoppio (centenarian doubling time-CDT). Secondo, anche il numero di decessi di queste età ha avuto un rapido aumento. Terzo, si è osservata una forte crescita nel tasso di centenarietà (CR), calcolato come rapporto tra gli individui di età 100 anni e più e i sessantenni delle stesse generazioni 40 anni prima (CR per 10.000). We collected and examined long time series of international data on centenarians in low mortality countries, with three major findings. Firstly, series of both censuses and census-based estimates of annual population indicate significant increases of centenarians, particularly females, in those countries. However, the countries exhibit different trends in the centenarian doubling time (CDT). Secondly, the number of centenarian deaths has also been rising steeply. Thirdly, pronounced improvements are observed for the Centenarian Rate (CR), the ratio of the number of persons aged 100 to those aged 60 forty years before (per 10,000 persons). La collecte et l'analyse d'une longue série de données sur les centenaires dans beaucoup de pays à faible mortalité permettent d'observer trois aspects de ce phénomène encore mal connu. Tout d'abord, les longues séries de données tirées des recensements ou des estimations annuelles intercensitaires révèlent partout une forte augmentation des centenaires, surtout chez les femmes, même si le temps requis au doublement de leur nombre (TDC) varie selon les pays. Ensuite, le nombre des décès de centenaires est aussi en forte augmentation. Enfin, on observe une forte croissance du taux de centenariat, qui est la proportion des centenaires parmi les personnes de 60 ans et plus des mêmes générations 40 ans plus tôt (TC pour 10.000).

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