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Country Risk: A Model for Predicting Debt Servicing Problems in Developing Countries

R. J. Taffler and B. Abassi
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General)
Vol. 147, No. 4 (1984), pp. 541-568
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
DOI: 10.2307/2981843
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2981843
Page Count: 28
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Country Risk: A Model for Predicting Debt Servicing Problems in Developing Countries
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Abstract

This paper describes an operational discriminant model for predicting debt reschedulings among developing countries combining both indicators of monetary policy and debt servicing capacity. Performance subsequent to its development is appraised with particular attention paid to the degree of robustness of the model to major changes in the world economy. A comparison with banker judgement is also provided.

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