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Relationships Between Bayesian and Confidence Limits for Predictions

A. R. Thatcher
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological)
Vol. 26, No. 2 (1964), pp. 176-210
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2984417
Page Count: 35
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Relationships Between Bayesian and Confidence Limits for Predictions
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Abstract

Given the number of successes in a random sample, prediction limits can be determined for the number which will be observed in a second sample, in a way which does not depend on any assumption or inference about the unknown proportion in the population. Such "confidence limits" for the prediction are found to correspond to Bayesian solutions based on two particular prior distributions, and are related to Laplace's rule of succession. The results suggest a possible type of "prediction strategy".

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