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The Offender Group Reconviction Scale: A Statistical Reconviction Score for Use by Probation Officers

John Copas and Peter Marshall
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics)
Vol. 47, No. 1 (1998), pp. 159-171
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2986060
Page Count: 13
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The Offender Group Reconviction Scale: A Statistical Reconviction Score for Use by Probation Officers
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Abstract

The criminal courts in England and Wales may request the probation service to submit pre-sentence reports which are considered by magistrates and judges before making their sentencing decision. Pre-sentence reports must include an assessment of the risk of reoffending and the risk of harm to the public which the convicted offender presents. The offender group reconviction scale is a statistical aid to such risk assessment. We describe the scale and the statistical analysis on which it is based, and we discuss some statistical aspects of its interpretation and use.

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